By Nicholas Sette
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With a sold out crowd in Boston on Halloween night, Matt Carpenter stepped in to face Koji Uehara with 2 outs in the top of the ninth inning of game six of the World Series. Uehara was lights out all year, establishing himself as the Red Sox closer by saving 26 games in the regular season. Koji would dismiss Carpenter, and it was party time for Red Sox nation. However, with that final pitch, superstar outfielder Jacob Ellsbury would hit the free agent market.
A flurry of front office activity ensued with multiple teams making offers for Jacoby. However, on December 4 of that same year Ellsbury shave his beard and put on Yankee pinstripes. After Carlos Beltran was inked to a 3-year, $45 deal, this left the Yankees with five outfielders: Jacob Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, Ichiro Suzuki and a backup outfielder nearing free agency by the name of Brett Gardner. This left the Yankees with a decision; do they extend Gardner, or do they look to move him for help in the infield?
Walt Jocketty, general manager of the Cincinnati Reds, offered Brian Cashman and The New York Yankees all-star Brandon Phillips for Gardner in December. Most Yankee fans saw the deal and questioned if the Yankees should move Gardner to fill the hole at second base that Robinson Cano left behind. However, the Yankees refused to move Gardner, and on Feb 23, 2014 the Yankees agreed to sign Gardner to a 4-year, $52 million contract, thus, adding to a crowded Yankee outfield.
The questions remained going into the 2014 season – will Brett Gardner fulfill his contract in that crowed Yankee outfield? Would he ever live up to his best year statistically in 2010 where he posted a .277 batting average with 5 homeruns and a WAR (Wins Above Average Replacement) of 6.0?
Through 133 games this season, Gardner has posted a .269 average, with 16 homeruns and a WAR of 3.7. After comparing his 2010 season to his 2014 season it appears Gardner has changed his approach. Gardner’s BB percentage (walk percentage) is down from 13.9 percent to 9.1 percent his K percentage (strikeout percentage) is up from 17.8 percent to 20.6 percent, and his slugging percentage is up from .379 to .442. Gardner is shifting his game from a speedy leadoff hitter to a potential power bat.
This may come as a surprise to most but this change is due to the numerous injuries in the Yankee lineup. Gardner is being called on to do more than get on base and try to steal. This regression reflects his decreased BsR (Base running above average) from 10.1 in 2010 to 3.2 in 2014 and his season low 19 stolen bases. A positive in Gardner’s transition for leadoff hitter to potential power hitter is his line drive rate up to 23.2 percent this season from 18.6 percent in 2010.
Brett Gardner wouldn’t be the first Yankee asked to pull balls over that short porch in right field. Curtis Granderson transitioned from gap hitter who ran out doubles and triples in spacious Comerica Park in Detroit to a powerful low average pull hitter in Yankee Stadium.
With all this being said, is Brett Gardner living up to his contract? According to Baseball Reference, Gardner is to be paid $5.6 million. According to fangraphs.com, the cost of a win for an offensive player is $7 million, therefore with Gardner’s 3.7 WAR (Wins Above Average Replacement) he is worth $25.9 million. The numbers show that Gardner is more than worth his contact, at least for this season.
Gardner’s contract pays him $12 million next season, and although this transition from leadoff hitter to power bat is working out this year, he still needs to replicate his performance after this career slugging year. Most of his statistics, as I discussed, are regressing, and if this trend continues, Gardner will find himself like most Yankees, playing ball in the house that Ruth built with a lucrative contract to fulfill.
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Nicholas Sette is a Contributing Writer for The Fordham Ram.
