With so much parity in the NFL, one or two plays often determine the fate of your team’s season. The 2011 Giants and 2012 Baltimore Ravens relied on several “game-changing” plays to win the Super Bowl. In the 2011 NFC Championship Game, 49ers returner Kyle Williams fumbled two costly punts in his own territory. The first happened with 10 minutes left in a 14-10 game. San Francisco had a 75 percent win probability before the fumble, which dropped to 52 percent after New York recovered and the second occurred in the sudden-death overtime and essentially put the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI. Last winter, the Ravens traveled to Denver as heavy underdogs. Despite a valiant effort, the Ravens needed to go 70 yards in 40 seconds to tie the game. The Broncos enjoyed a 98 percent win probability as Joe Flacco fired a pass for Jacoby Jones in the icy air. Ten seconds later, Baltimore had improbably tied the game, and would win 38-35 en route to a remarkable title. As the last two NFL champions have illustrated, you need several unlikely big plays in order to conquer the parity-rich NFL.
The NFL is so special because any play could become the play that dictates the outcome of the game. The fact that games can change so suddenly is what captivates us, and a glut of close Week one contests clearly captivated the masses. So enjoy the next 16 weeks of football, and pray that your team makes the crucial plays that win games!
