Rarely will a team that is 50-51 on July 28 make the playoffs, let alone be World Series favorites. However, the Blue Jays have done just that. There are a number of reasons why the Toronto Blue Jays are World Series favorites, and here I present a few of the most important.
1. The power bats. It is well- known that scoring decreases for all teams during the playoffs, resulting from factors that range from the quality of pitching to colder weather. However, as Ben Lindbergh noted in his terrific article for Grantland last year about playoff-related myths, teams that rely on power will not see the same decline in productivity as “well-balanced” offenses do. Think of the 2009 Yankees, who had a home run-happy lineup that continued its offensive dominance into the World Series against great Phillies pitchers. Teams with powerful hitters will continue to mash in October, while more pesky players are not as valuable.
Luckily for the Blue Jays, they have plenty of power. They have hit an MLB-best 209 home runs but are actually seventh in reliance on homers for runs according to Baseball Prospectus. That, however, is because of their historic run production, which has netted more than 100 runs more than the Yankees, who have the second-most runs scored.
2. The trade deadline. Usually a team hovering around .500 at the trade deadline should not be buyers, but General Manager Alex Anthopolus has no contract for next year, so he went all in. Anthopolus made many shrewd trades over the offseason, including swapping this year’s AL MVP Josh Donaldson for the perpetually disappointing Brett Lawrie. By mid-year, he was still not happy with the team. On July 28, AA pulled off a heist by getting Troy Tulowitzki and Latroy Hawkins for Jose Reyes and others. Hawkins is 42 and will retire at the end of the season, but can pitch in high-leverage situations. Tulowitzki immediately improved the Blue Jays on both sides of the ball despite struggling with the bat. Although the oft-injured Tulowitzki is out for the remainder of the regular season, he should contribute in the postseason. On July 30, the Jays fortified their glaring weakness, starting pitching, by acquiring David Price. The lefty slots in nicely as the team’s ace, and, after his arrival, all the other pitchers on the staff started playing better. The next day, the Jays bolstered their outfield with speedster Ben Revere.
3. Marcus Stroman. The Blue Jays were my pick to win the AL East in the preseason. However, Marcus Stroman tore the ACL in his left knee, requiring him to have surgery. After, he was presumed to be out for 2015. I re-evaluated Toronto and dropped it from playoff team to also-ran due to the absence of the pitcher I predicted to break out. However, Stroman had an extremely successful and rapid recovery. He returned to the majors on Sept. 12 and beat the Yankees. Along with Price, Stroman gives the Jays a pair of reassuring options for crucial playoff games instead of relying on wash-outs R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle and the infuriating Drew Hutchinson. Stroman’s injury looked like a potential death blow for the 2015 Blue Jays, but his recovery may be key for a long playoff run.
4. History. The last two years, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals ended long playoff droughts. Currently, the Blue Jays’ run of missing the playoffs every year since 1993 is the longest active streak in the league. That will soon end (sorry Mariners) as the Jays will again make the postseason. As most expansion teams do, the Blue Jays struggled in the early years of the franchise, starting in 1977. By the mid-80s, the Blue Jays became dangerous but couldn’t make it to the World Series until 1992. That season was the first of two consecutive championships for Toronto but they have failed to reach the postseason since 1993. Fan excitement is back north of the border and the organization has lost time to make up for.
5. The playoffs are up for grabs. Last year, the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals were both underdogs that faced long odds to reach the playoffs.
Even though Toronto may have the best odds to win the World Series right now, they can easily be eliminated in the first round. They still face an uphill climb, but I like their odds.
