The Houston Astros are crashing back down to earth.
In one of the season’s most pleasant surprises, the Astros are in the midst of a turnaround year, battling for their spot in the postseason after nearly a decade of destitution.
After six consecutive years of below-.500 baseball — including three straight seasons with fewer than 60 wins — and several fifth and sixth-place division finishes, as well as a transition from the National to the American League and another revamped uniform look, Houston is back to its winning ways of the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Led by a strong young core with players like Cy Young Award contender Dallas Keuchel, Rookie of the Year candidate Carlos Correa, reigning AL batting champion Jose Altuve, the dynamic George Springer and more, the team rocketed out to a 16-7 record and five-game lead in the American League West by the end of April and has held the division lead for practically the entire season.
As recently as Aug. 2, the Astros led the division by four games over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and eight over the Texas Rangers. According to the MLB.com postseason probability projections at the time, Houston had a 95 percent chance to reach the postseason, LA a 66 percent chance and Texas just a 10 percent chance.
Since then, the Astros have struggled to maintain their prominence. Their division lead has decreased steadily, and while the Angels fell off pace too, the Rangers surged. After a four-game sweep by the Rangers last week, the Astros finally relinquished their lead, falling into second place, 2.5 games behind the Rangers.
Nevertheless, the season is not lost. While Texas now has a 93 percent chance of reaching the postseason, the Astros still have a 78 percent chance of doing the same — just not via a division title.
The Astros now find themselves in second place in the AL Wild Card standings, in position to reach the playoffs along with the New York Yankees. The Yankees and Astros are 5.5 games and 1.5 games ahead of the Angels, respectively, with only about two weeks left in the regular season.
Under the new postseason format implemented in 2012, the division winners are guaranteed a best-of-five series, whereas the two wild card winners must play an elimination game at the outset of the postseason to reach the divisional series. Prior to the format change, only the top wild card team would advance to the postseason to play a divisional team, but now the expanded format features the top two in an all-or-nothing first-round affair.
The Astros would still make the playoffs if they started tomorrow, but would have to beat the Yankees in the Bronx to advance to a best-of-five series.
This is what makes winning the division so important. As it stands now, the Rangers get an entire series to advance, but the Astros must play in a win-or-go-home game.
Will Houston have an explosive finish, or will this season’s atmospheric climb end in a sharp plummet out of postseason contention? The entire league is watching.
